Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open in flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.7
214
31,497
Nifty
0.7
71
9,860
U.S. markets closed higher on Tuesday, building on strong gains from their previous
session. The strength on Wall Street reflected recent upward momentum, as trader
Mid Cap
0.8
119
15,555
seems optimistic about the economic outlook and the prospects for Republican tax
Small Cap
0.5
79
16,193
reform.
Bankex
0.2
57
27,082
The European markets were stuck in a sideways trend throughout Tuesday's session.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Following eight straight days of gains, the markets struggled to move further to the
upside due to a lack of significant news. Economic data was on the light side and
Dow Jones
0.4
84
22,642
the DAX of Germany was closed for a holiday.
Nasdaq
0.2
15
6,532
FTSE
0.4
29
7,468
Indian markets rose notably on Tuesday as top automaker reported strong monthly
Nikkei
1.0
213
20,614
sales figures for September and survey figures from IHS Markit showed India's
manufacturing activity logged a sustained expansion in September, underpinned by
Hang Seng
2.2
619
28,173
increases in both output and new order.
Shanghai Com
0.3
9
3,349
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Ashok Leyland, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Maruti
Advances
1,407
896
Detailed analysis is on Pg2
Declines
1,327
801
Unchanged
115
88
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicator
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE#
3,354
Refer Pg7 onwards
NSE
25,606
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
#Net Inflows (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
776
850
9.6
FII
1,077
(10,759)
36,530
Dewan Housing FinanceFinancials
Accumulate
550
610
11.0
MFs
1,631
17,457
86,344
Asian Granito
Other
Buy
467
570
22.0
Navkar Corporation
Other
Buy
183
265
44.5
Top Gainer
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Accumulate
360
385
7.0
More Top Picks on Pg5
Tatasponge
910
7.6
Gnfc
324
6.9
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Pcjeweller
353
6.9
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Jindalstel
144
6.9
Oct04, 2017 Germany PMI Services
55.60
55.60
Hindzinc
314
6.0
Oct04, 2017 India
RBI Revere Repo rate
5.75
5.75
Oct04, 2017 India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
4.00
4.00
Oct04, 2017 India
RBI Repo rate
6.00
6.00
Top Loser
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Oct05, 2017 US
Initial Jobless claims
272.00
265.00
Rcom
17
(10.9)
More Events on Pg7
Hcc
32
(5.4)
Relcapital
561
(4.3)
Adanient
112
(3.9)
Star
854
(3.5)
#as on 03th Oct, 2017
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
News Analysis
Ashok Leyland continues with strong growth in MHCV volumes
Ashok Leyland September-17 volumes were better than expected. Total volumes
grew by 27.5% yoy to 15,370 units vs. our expectation of 13,926 units. MHCV
volumes grew by 31.8% yoy to 11,804 units while LCV volumes grew by 15.3% to
3,566 units. The MHCV volumes have been growing by about 30% for the last two
months indicating a robust demand for the BSIV compliant vehicles based on the
new technology, iEGR. For the last two months, Ashok Leyland’s LCV volumes have
grown by
14-15% whereas cumulatively between May-2017 to July-2017,
company reported 26% yoy growth indicating that LCV growth is slower in the past
two months (August to Sept 2017). We maintain accumulate rating on the stock
with price target of `134.
Hero MotoCorp number slightly below expectations
Hero MotoCorp reported 6.8% yoy growth in the 2W volumes in Sept-2017. The
number were slightly below our expectations, especially considering the ongoing
festive season. Company sold total 7,20,739 vehicles which are highest ever in its
history. We expect growth to pick up in the second half in the current fiscal due to
the weak base of 2HFY17 and strong demand scenario for the two wheeles that
we are witnessing. We maintain accumulate rating on the stock with a price target
of `4,226.
Bajaj Auto reports good number, 3Ws shows solid recovery
Bajaj Auto ‘s September-2017 numbes have been better than expectations. Total
volumes (2W + 3W) grew by 13.8% vs our expectation of 10%. Domestic
motorcycle volumes grew by 7.3% yoy, this is highest growth in the last 12 months.
Company in the earlier
10 months had reported decline in the domestic
motorcycle volumes. The motorcycle exports grew by 20.5% yoy, this is second
month in row when motorcycle exports have grown. Total motorcycle volumes in
the month grew by 11.4%. The surprise however was the 32% growth in 3W
volumes which have grown in both domestic (37% growth) and export markets
(25.5% growth). Total 3W volumes grew by 32% yoy which is highest growth in the
last 18 months. We maintain accumulate with price target of `3350.
Maruti’s September number below expectations
MSIL’s September number have surprised us negatively. Total volume growth was
at 9.3% to 163,071 units, this was 3% below our expectations. While mini segment
volumes declined yoy, compact segment volumes have shown a 45% yoy growth.
Overall passenger car grew by 11% yoy. UV volumes growth has slowed down to
8% yoy compared to double digit growth reported in earlier several months. Total
domestic passenger vehicle volumes were up 9.6%. Export volumes were flat yoy
but have been maintaining a monthly run rate of about 11,000 units for third
month in row. MSIL has recently said that it is adding another shift in Gujarat plant
to ease the capacity constraints. The Baleno and Brezza continue to have a strong
order book of about 18-20 weeks. While the growth has slowed down a bit, this
could be due to the slower economic activity, post GST as well as the cess hike
taken earlier in September 2017. We expect growth to pick-up in the month of
October-2017 on the occasion of festive season, maintain accumulate with a price
target of `8,666.
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
SBI Life insurance - We also had recommended SUBSCRIBE view on SBI Life
insurance Company. It raised `8400cr and IPO priced at `685-700.
SBI Life Insurance Company made a debut yesterday with 5% premium at `735
and hit an intraday high of `740. It closed at `708, up 1.14 % over issue price.
We recommend booking profit in SBI Life insurance Company IPO.
Economic and Political News
Thermal power capacity addition slows in April-August
Output of eight core industries rises to 4.9% in August
Exports from SEZs up 15.4% in April-June quarter to `1.35 lakh cr
Corporate News
RCom reworking $1.7 bn tower assets stake sale after failed Aircel deal
Odisha's second notice seeks `2,900cr fine from Tata Steel, other miner
Adani Group created shell firms to minimise tax in Australia: Report
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Strong growth in domestic business due to its leade`hip
in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch
Alkem Laboratories
22,049
1,844
2,079
12.7
more products in USA, which bodes for its international
business.
We expect the company would report strong profitability
Asian Granito
1,406
467
570
22.0
owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and
amalgamation synergy.
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the
Blue Star
7,427
776
850
9.6
market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
17,236
550
610
11.0
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Loan growth is likely to pick up after a sluggish FY17.
Lower credit cost will help in strong bottom-line growth.
Karur Vysya Bank
8,642
143
180
25.9
Increasing share of CASA will help in NIM
improvement.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising B2C
KEI Industries
2,799
360
385
7.0
sales and higher exports to boost the revenues and
profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex requirement
Music Broadcast
2,248
394
434
10.2
and 15 year long radio broadcast licensing.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage
Navkar Corporation
2,615
183
265
44.5
at ICD as well CFS augur well for the company
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,089
2,229
2,500
12.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Market leaderhip in Hindi news genre and no.
2
viewe`hip ranking in English news genre, exit from the
TV Today Network
2,189
367
435
18.5
radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by
corporates to benefit the stock.
After GST, the company is expected to see higher
volumes along with improving product mix. The Gujarat
Maruti Suzuki
2,38,296
7,889
8,658
9.8
plant will also enable higher operating leverage which
will be margin accretive.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next two
GIC Housing
2,847
529
655
23.9
year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement..
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bl oomberg Data
D ate
Time
C ountry
Event Description
Unit
Period
L ast Reporte d
E stimate d
Oct 04, 2017
1:25 PM Germany
PMI Services
Value
Sep F
55.60
55.60
2:30 PM India
RBI Reverse Re po rate
%
Oct 4
5.75
5.75
2:30 PM India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 4
4.00
4.00
2:30 PM India
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 4
6.00
6.00
Oct 05, 2017
6:00 PM US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Sep 30
272.00
265.00
Oct 06, 2017
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Sep
21.00
6:00 PM US
Change in N onfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
156.00
80.00
Oct 10, 2017
6:00 PM US
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
4.40
4.40
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
10.30
2:00 PM UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.40
Oct 12, 2017
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.50
5:30 PM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
1.20
Oct 13, 2017
6:00 PM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.40
0.60
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
5.60
10.30
Oct 16, 2017
12: 00 PM India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Sep
3.24
7:00 AM China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
1.80
1.60
Oct 17, 2017
2:30 PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Sep F
1.50
2:00 PM UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.90
6:45 PM US
Industrial Production
%
Sep
(0.90)
(0.10)
Oct 18, 2017
6:00 PM US
Housi ng Starts
Thousands
Sep
1,180.00
1,200.00
6:00 PM US
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
1,272.00
1,260.00
2:00 PM UK
Joble ss claims change
% Change
Sep
(2.80)
Oct 19, 2017
7:30 AM China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
6.00
7:30 AM China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.90
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
6.0
9.1
5.1
8.8
5.0
9.0
5.0
4.4
8.0
7.9
4.2
7.6
7.5
8.0
7.3
7.2
4.0
3.5
7.0
3.2
2.8
7.0
6.1
6.1
3.0
2.4
5.7
6.0
2.0
1.2
1.2
5.0
1.0
4.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.2)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
5.0
54.0
4.3
4.2
4.5
3.9
52.0
4.0
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.2
50.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
48.0
2.4
2.2
2.5
46.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
0.5
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
60.0
6.50
50.0
6.00
40.0
5.50
30.0
5.00
20.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(10.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.2
6.6
7.0
6.0
5.1
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.3
2.0
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.8
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research, data as of 03th Oct-17
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
76,763
8.4
21.4
31.6
Russia
Micex
2,077
3.3
8.1
5.1
India
Nifty
9,860
(0.6)
3.6
12.7
China
Shanghai Composite
3,349
(0.4)
4.8
10.7
South Africa
Top 40
50,140
0.3
9.0
8.8
Mexico
Mexbol
50,615
(0.9)
0.6
5.1
Indonesia
LQ45
990
1.6
(0.4)
8.1
Malaysia
KLCI
1,760
(0.6)
(0.7)
5.3
Thailand
SET 50
1,081
4.6
8.7
14.1
USA
Dow Jones
22,642
3.2
5.4
24.6
UK
FTSE
7,468
0.4
1.5
6.2
Japan
Nikkei
20,614
4.9
2.9
23.6
Germany
DAX
12,829
7.0
3.7
23.0
France
CAC
5,367
4.8
3.6
20.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research, data as of 03th Oct-17 p68in4
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
210
-
4,084
1,873
2,099
15.0
15.0
9.5
10.5
22.1
20.0
3.4
3.0
15.8
16.0
2.1
1.9
United Phosphorus
Neutral
795
-
40,412
18,922
21,949
18.0
18.5
36.2
45.6
22.0
17.4
4.6
3.8
22.7
23.8
2.3
1.9
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
122
-
35,792
23,339
27,240
10.1
10.8
4.7
6.2
26.3
19.7
5.3
4.6
20.0
23.6
1.5
1.3
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
3,164
-
91,550
23,936
27,955
19.5
20.1
142.7
167.3
22.2
18.9
4.8
4.3
21.8
22.8
3.4
2.9
Bharat Forge
Buy
618
875
28,762
7,637
8,755
21.7
23.2
36.1
47.3
17.1
13.1
3.1
2.6
18.5
20.8
3.6
3.1
Eicher Motors
Neutral
31,147
-
84,791
19,043
22,837
19.5
19.9
835.4
1,019.0
37.3
30.6
13.9
10.7
40.9
37.8
4.3
3.6
Gabriel India
Neutral
194
-
2,784
1,782
2,033
9.7
10.2
7.1
8.9
27.3
21.9
5.5
4.7
21.0
22.2
1.5
1.3
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
3,806
4,129
75,996
32,239
36,878
16.0
15.6
184.4
206.5
20.6
18.4
6.5
5.7
31.3
30.7
2.1
1.8
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
268
-
2,134
1,441
1,662
14.4
14.8
13.9
17.6
19.3
15.2
5.3
4.3
30.0
31.0
1.5
1.2
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,265
-
78,581
46,971
53,816
13.6
14.0
67.7
79.8
18.7
15.9
2.7
2.4
15.0
15.9
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Accumulate
7,889
8,658
238,296
81,825
101,245
15.0
15.0
283.5
356.0
27.8
22.2
6.1
5.0
21.9
22.4
2.6
2.0
Minda Industries
Neutral
843
-
7,281
4,328
5,084
11.0
11.9
27.3
36.4
30.9
23.2
6.6
5.1
23.1
25.6
1.8
1.5
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
339
-
71,397
55,937
64,445
10.8
11.4
16.9
21.1
20.1
16.1
4.5
4.6
25.2
25.4
1.3
1.1
Tata Motors
Neutral
416
-
120,229
303,167
343,649
11.8
13.8
33.1
54.7
12.6
7.6
2.1
1.7
16.9
23.0
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Neutral
655
-
31,102
13,992
16,216
9.0
9.4
17.1
20.3
38.4
32.3
10.2
7.9
29.7
27.7
2.2
1.8
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
707
858
12,080
6,140
7,122
14.3
15.6
29.3
39.0
24.1
18.1
4.1
3.5
17.1
19.0
2.0
1.7
Exide Industries
Neutral
208
-
17,650
8,689
9,854
15.1
15.2
9.7
11.0
21.5
18.9
3.8
3.4
15.7
16.1
1.8
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
244
-
12,402
15,739
17,326
13.3
14.6
20.4
26.7
11.9
9.1
1.5
1.3
20.4
26.7
1.0
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,705
-
6,898
6,661
7,717
11.1
14.2
116.2
178.2
14.7
9.6
2.6
2.1
15.2
21.3
1.1
1.0
JK Tyres
Neutral
148
-
3,353
8,318
9,239
16.2
16.4
21.0
27.5
7.1
5.4
1.4
1.1
19.1
20.4
0.9
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
2,000
-
2,484
788
889
16.4
16.5
71.6
81.0
27.9
24.7
8.1
7.5
29.6
31.0
2.8
2.4
Subros
Neutral
236
-
1,418
1,855
2,135
11.6
11.8
10.3
14.7
23.1
16.1
3.5
3.0
15.8
19.1
1.0
0.8
Capital Goods
BEML
Neutral
1,598
-
6,656
4,286
5,194
7.1
8.2
42.9
58.1
37.3
27.5
3.1
2.8
7.6
8.7
1.6
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
164
-
40,172
10,258
12,470
19.6
19.5
7.3
8.6
22.4
19.0
0.4
0.4
20.4
21.9
3.4
2.8
Voltas
Neutral
522
-
17,279
6,778
8,004
9.6
11.0
17.1
22.4
30.5
23.3
7.3
6.4
17.7
19.8
2.2
1.9
BHEL
Neutral
83
-
30,528
33,200
39,167
6.8
9.5
6.2
11.2
13.4
7.4
0.6
0.6
4.6
8.0
0.5
0.4
Blue Star
Accumulate
776
850
7,427
5,220
6,207
6.3
6.6
16.8
22.3
46.2
34.8
9.2
8.1
19.9
23.3
1.4
1.2
CG Power and Industrial
Neutral
78
-
4,914
6,555
7,292
7.5
7.5
-
0.8
7,840.0
98.0
1.2
1.2
0.1
1.2
0.8
0.8
Solutions
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
134
-
3,282
1,778
1,993
14.7
15.1
8.1
9.1
16.6
14.8
3.7
3.5
21.8
23.6
1.6
1.4
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Accumulate
310
350
7,961
9,779
11,113
9.4
9.8
14.2
18.2
21.8
17.0
4.2
3.4
21.1
22.1
1.1
0.9
KEI Industries
Accumulate
360
385
2,799
3,001
3,391
10.0
10.0
13.0
16.1
27.7
22.3
5.0
4.2
18.2
18.7
1.1
1.0
Thermax
Neutral
935
-
11,139
4,125
4,747
10.3
10.8
26.7
31.5
35.0
29.7
3.9
3.6
11.2
12.0
2.4
2.1
VATech Wabag
Accumulate
592
681
3,234
3,867
4,126
9.6
10.0
34.9
39.8
17.0
14.9
2.8
2.4
17.7
17.5
0.9
0.8
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,646
-
30,914
12,255
13,350
13.5
14.3
58.0
66.2
28.4
24.9
3.4
3.1
11.5
12.2
2.5
2.3
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
269
-
53,384
10,250
11,450
17.5
19.0
7.2
8.3
37.3
32.4
2.7
2.5
7.0
7.8
5.0
4.4
India Cements
Neutral
182
-
5,621
6,135
6,750
14.8
15.2
8.5
11.5
21.5
15.9
1.1
1.0
4.8
6.2
1.3
1.1
JK Cement
Neutral
964
-
6,739
4,150
4,775
19.2
20.0
49.0
63.5
19.7
15.2
3.1
2.7
17.0
18.5
2.1
1.8
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
387
-
4,557
3,422
3,757
15.5
17.0
13.5
23.2
28.7
16.7
3.0
2.6
10.8
15.5
1.7
1.5
Orient Cement
Neutral
153
-
3,127
2,215
3,233
16.8
17.0
5.9
6.9
25.9
22.1
2.0
1.8
10.8
10.1
2.4
1.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,898
-
107,023
28,250
35,150
20.2
23.5
77.5
122.2
50.3
31.9
4.2
3.8
9.6
14.8
4.3
3.4
Construction
KNR Constructions
Neutral
206
-
2,899
1,846
2,203
14.5
14.5
12.1
13.7
17.0
15.1
0.9
0.8
17.5
16.7
1.6
1.3
Larsen & Toubro
Neutral
1,134
-
158,871
95,787
109,476
10.2
11.6
44.5
50.8
25.5
22.4
3.2
2.9
12.9
13.1
2.2
2.0
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
135
-
6,522
739
842
61.6
62.7
5.1
6.2
26.5
21.9
3.3
3.2
12.7
14.9
8.3
7.2
PNC Infratech
Neutral
143
-
3,666
2,040
2,935
13.0
13.0
6.4
9.0
22.3
15.9
0.6
0.5
9.7
12.2
1.8
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
460
-
2,275
6,012
6,619
11.6
11.7
21.1
31.0
21.8
14.9
1.5
1.4
6.5
8.6
0.9
0.8
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
299
-
5,127
3,823
4,426
10.7
10.8
10.3
11.8
29.0
25.3
3.5
3.1
10.1
10.5
1.7
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
213
-
19,202
9,099
12,706
6.4
6.4
7.3
9.6
29.3
22.3
1.3
1.0
27.5
30.5
2.0
1.4
MEP Infra
Neutral
102
-
1,657
2,403
2,910
18.3
16.8
2.4
6.1
43.4
16.8
16.4
11.1
35.2
55.8
1.8
1.5
SIPL
Neutral
96
-
3,381
2,060
2,390
46.8
47.7
(5.8)
(3.1)
3.6
4.1
(14.2)
(2.3)
6.4
6.0
Engineers India
Neutral
148
-
9,983
1,795
2,611
21.1
22.4
5.9
8.1
25.1
18.3
1.8
1.7
12.9
16.1
3.9
2.5
Financials
Axis Bank
Accumulate
509
580
121,918
32,558
35,843
3.5
3.2
27.8
41.0
18.3
12.4
2.0
1.7
11.4
14.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
137
-
31,613
22,533
26,079
2.4
2.4
12.0
20.9
11.4
6.6
0.7
0.7
6.6
11.0
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
308
-
18,417
17,925
20,235
2.0
2.1
18.5
36.5
16.7
8.5
0.6
0.6
3.4
6.2
-
-
Can Fin Homes
Neutral
2,636
-
7,017
586
741
3.5
3.5
107.8
141.0
24.4
18.7
5.4
4.3
24.1
25.6
-
-
Cholamandalam Inv. &
Accumulate
1,108
1,230
17,320
2,826
3,307
6.3
6.3
53.7
64.6
20.7
17.2
3.5
3.0
18.3
18.9
-
-
Fin. Co.
Dewan Housing Finance Accumulate
550
610
17,236
2,676
3,383
2.4
2.7
37.4
49.7
14.7
11.1
1.9
1.7
13.8
16.2
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
152
235
5,150
1,125
1,380
9.6
9.8
1.5
6.0
101.3
25.3
2.3
2.1
2.4
8.2
-
-
Federal Bank
Accumulate
112
125
21,905
4,896
5,930
2.8
3.1
5.4
7.6
20.9
14.9
1.8
1.6
8.5
11.0
-
-
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Financials
GIC Housing
Buy
529
655
2,847
376
477
3.6
3.7
33.0
40.0
16.0
13.2
2.9
2.4
20.0
23.0
-
-
HDFC Bank
Neutral
1,809
-
466,897
55,236
63,253
4.5
4.4
68.9
82.4
26.3
21.9
4.6
3.8
18.7
18.5
-
-
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
278
315
178,657
42,361
51,378
3.6
3.9
18.4
25.7
15.2
10.8
1.7
1.6
11.3
15.0
-
-
Karur Vysya Bank
Buy
143
180
8,642
3,289
3,630
3.7
3.9
10.8
14.1
13.2
10.2
1.6
1.4
12.5
14.7
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Neutral
642
-
32,392
4,895
6,332
3.4
3.7
50.7
66.8
12.7
9.6
2.5
2.1
21.7
23.8
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
130
-
27,600
23,708
25,758
2.1
2.1
5.9
16.4
22.1
7.9
0.7
0.6
3.0
8.3
-
-
RBL Bank
Neutral
510
-
21,072
2,309
2,888
2.6
2.5
16.4
19.1
31.2
26.8
3.9
3.5
13.3
13.8
-
-
Repco Home Finance
Buy
640
825
4,003
496
597
4.4
4.2
38.5
48.7
16.6
13.1
3.0
2.5
19.6
20.6
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
28
-
5,052
3,195
3,567
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.8
9.3
7.3
0.9
0.8
10.5
11.9
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
251
-
216,923
105,827
121,056
2.4
2.5
16.1
25.6
15.6
9.8
1.2
1.1
6.6
9.9
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
127
-
9,193
14,650
16,225
2.3
2.3
23.1
32.5
5.5
3.9
0.4
0.4
7.1
9.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
351
-
80,292
11,088
13,138
3.0
2.9
84.0
99.3
4.2
3.5
0.6
0.6
16.3
16.8
-
-
FMCG
Akzo Nobel India
Neutral
1,908
-
9,149
3,164
3,607
13.8
13.7
58.6
67.9
32.6
28.1
8.0
7.1
24.5
25.1
2.8
2.4
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,147
-
110,063
17,603
20,615
18.6
18.6
2,128.9
2,543.3
0.5
0.5
11.4
9.6
28.0
28.9
6.1
5.1
Britannia
Neutral
4,340
-
52,108
9,690
11,278
14.8
15.4
84.0
101.0
51.7
43.0
18.8
15.0
40.6
39.0
5.3
4.6
Colgate
Neutral
1,059
-
28,796
4,420
5,074
24.9
25.3
28.6
32.8
37.0
32.3
14.6
11.8
43.8
40.5
6.3
5.4
Dabur India
Neutral
312
-
54,898
8,346
9,344
19.6
19.9
7.8
9.0
40.0
34.6
8.1
7.3
25.2
24.8
6.2
5.4
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,027
-
21,140
5,072
5,760
18.2
18.4
176.3
199.2
28.5
25.2
6.1
5.5
21.2
21.7
3.5
3.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
958
-
65,265
10,171
11,682
20.8
21.5
21.7
27.1
44.1
35.4
9.9
8.5
22.3
23.4
6.5
5.6
HUL
Neutral
1,187
-
256,826
37,077
41,508
20.3
21.8
5,189.9
6,318.5
0.2
0.2
36.2
30.9
74.8
82.0
6.8
6.1
ITC
Neutral
261
-
318,332
44,588
49,853
37.0
37.3
9.6
11.0
27.2
23.8
6.7
6.4
25.1
27.3
6.6
5.9
Marico
Neutral
308
-
39,747
6,788
7,766
18.5
19.2
7.1
8.5
43.4
36.2
15.2
13.0
36.9
38.0
5.7
5.0
Nestle*
Neutral
7,313
-
70,510
10,083
11,182
20.0
20.9
119.7
141.3
61.1
51.8
215.3
196.8
36.7
39.8
6.7
6.0
Tata Global
Neutral
206
-
13,030
7,121
7,641
11.9
12.3
6.9
8.0
29.9
25.8
2.0
1.9
6.8
7.2
1.6
1.5
Procter & Gamble
Neutral
8,388
-
27,228
3,034
3,579
27.1
27.7
167.7
198.8
50.0
42.2
13.4
11.6
28.8
29.5
8.4
7.0
Hygiene
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
883
1,014
125,932
52,342
57,053
20.9
20.9
62.8
67.6
14.1
13.1
3.2
2.7
22.4
20.6
2.1
1.8
Infosys
Buy
904
1,179
207,634
73,963
80,619
26.0
26.0
64.4
69.3
14.0
13.0
2.8
2.6
19.7
19.6
2.2
2.0
TCS
Accumulate
2,447
2,651
482,174
127,403
138,870
27.6
27.6
144.5
156.0
16.9
15.7
5.0
4.7
29.7
29.8
3.4
3.1
Tech Mahindra
Buy
463
533
45,199
31,015
33,496
15.0
15.0
35.6
38.1
13.0
12.2
2.2
2.1
17.0
16.3
1.2
1.1
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
IT
Wipro
Neutral
283
-
137,752
58,536
61,858
20.3
20.3
18.2
19.1
15.6
14.8
2.4
2.1
14.6
13.4
2.3
2.2
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
381
-
7,009
2,404
2,625
30.5
31.5
23.7
26.9
16.1
14.2
3.8
3.2
23.5
22.8
2.8
2.5
HT Media
Neutral
96
-
2,231
2,589
2,830
15.1
15.4
8.3
10.9
11.6
8.8
0.9
0.9
8.4
10.4
0.4
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
179
225
5,852
2,541
2,835
28.5
28.7
12.7
14.1
14.1
12.7
2.9
2.5
21.3
21.4
2.2
1.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
767
-
30,216
3,238
3,789
51.9
55.1
30.9
38.0
24.8
20.2
7.1
6.2
30.0
31.0
8.8
7.4
Hindustan Media
Neutral
251
-
1,841
1,002
1,074
23.3
23.5
29.2
33.8
8.6
7.4
1.3
1.1
15.6
15.4
0.8
0.6
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
367
435
2,189
667
727
27.7
27.7
18.6
20.1
19.7
18.3
3.1
3.1
15.6
17.3
2.8
2.6
Music Broadcast Limited Accumulate
394
434
2,248
271
317
91.0
109.0
6.0
10.0
65.7
39.4
4.1
3.7
6.5
9.3
7.9
6.5
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
271
-
168,438
82,301
91,235
17.0
18.0
17.1
20.5
15.9
13.2
3.0
2.8
45.0
55.0
1.7
1.5
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
314
-
132,485
22,108
24,555
57.0
58.0
22.1
26.3
14.2
11.9
4.6
3.7
32.0
35.0
5.0
4.2
Hindalco
Neutral
242
-
54,206
102,350
105,355
13.5
14.5
21.5
24.5
11.2
9.9
1.6
1.3
15.0
15.2
1.1
1.1
JSW Steel
Neutral
250
-
60,394
64,500
68,245
21.1
21.5
20.1
21.2
12.4
11.8
2.3
2.0
-
-
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
119
-
37,761
10,209
11,450
47.0
48.0
11.1
12.1
10.8
9.9
1.5
1.4
-
-
3.2
2.9
SAIL
Neutral
54
-
22,137
54,100
63,555
3.0
10.0
(10.0)
1.5
35.7
0.7
0.7
-
-
1.4
1.2
Vedanta
Neutral
318
-
118,300
81,206
87,345
28.0
29.0
26.5
33.5
12.0
9.5
2.7
2.3
-
-
2.2
1.9
Tata Steel
Neutral
661
-
64,163
121,445
126,500
16.2
17.2
65.4
81.3
10.1
8.1
1.6
1.4
-
-
1.1
0.9
Oil & Gas
GAIL
Neutral
434
-
73,335
53,115
52,344
14.2
15.3
30.0
31.1
14.5
13.9
1.8
1.7
-
-
1.1
1.1
ONGC
Neutral
170
-
218,743
83,111
84,934
44.2
44.9
16.4
16.9
10.4
10.1
1.3
1.2
-
-
2.5
2.5
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
407
-
197,490
396,116
432,560
8.5
8.8
40.1
42.2
10.1
9.6
1.8
1.6
-
-
0.6
0.6
Reliance Industries
Neutral
798
-
519,231
257,711
267,438
17.0
18.2
89.1
89.5
9.0
8.9
0.8
0.8
-
-
1.7
1.6
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
502
600
9,455
3,903
4,584
18.2
19.2
21.8
27.2
23.0
18.4
4.2
3.5
19.8
20.6
2.4
2.1
Alkem Laboratories Ltd
Accumulate
1,844
2,079
22,049
6,320
7,341
17.5
19.8
72.7
96.6
25.4
19.1
4.5
3.8
16.7
18.7
3.4
2.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
708
823
41,460
17,086
19,478
22.1
22.0
44.7
51.4
15.8
13.8
3.5
2.8
24.7
22.7
2.5
2.2
Aventis*
Neutral
4,124
-
9,498
2,508
2,862
16.8
16.8
139.9
153.8
29.5
26.8
4.3
3.5
23.5
25.8
3.4
2.8
Cadila Healthcare
Reduce
474
426
48,566
11,584
13,228
20.3
20.4
18.7
21.3
25.4
22.3
5.7
4.6
24.6
22.9
4.0
3.5
Cipla
Sell
580
458
46,704
16,619
19,437
15.4
16.2
19.7
24.3
29.5
23.9
3.4
3.0
12.0
13.2
3.0
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,337
-
38,748
15,844
17,973
17.6
18.2
91.7
111.0
25.5
21.1
2.9
2.6
11.9
13.0
2.7
2.4
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,469
-
20,911
3,260
3,651
15.0
18.0
46.1
58.6
53.6
42.1
11.0
11.4
20.0
26.5
6.3
5.7
Indoco Remedies
Sell
206
153
1,902
1,154
1,310
14.9
14.9
11.3
12.7
18.3
16.3
2.6
2.3
15.0
15.0
1.8
1.5
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Pharmaceuticals
Ipca labs
Accumulate
494
540
6,231
3,593
4,022
14.5
15.5
19.4
25.2
25.5
19.6
2.3
2.1
9.5
11.2
1.8
1.6
Lupin
Buy
1,021
1,467
46,117
18,657
21,289
21.3
23.3
52.8
66.7
19.3
15.3
2.9
2.5
16.3
17.5
2.5
2.1
Natco Pharma
Neutral
794
-
13,835
1,836
1,946
31.8
28.9
22.1
20.6
35.9
38.5
7.2
6.4
20.1
16.7
7.4
6.9
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
503
558
120,634
32,899
36,451
26.9
25.4
31.6
32.3
15.9
15.6
2.8
2.4
18.7
18.8
3.3
2.8
Syngene International
Accumulate
488
557
9,756
1,402
1,823
32.8
36.0
15.9
20.7
30.7
23.6
5.7
4.7
18.7
20.0
6.9
5.3
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
77
-
20,935
32,547
33,806
20.5
20.5
4.7
5.4
16.5
14.5
1.6
1.4
10.5
10.5
1.6
1.6
NTPC
Neutral
168
-
138,812
86,070
101,246
28.3
30.7
12.9
16.2
13.1
10.4
1.3
1.2
10.6
12.4
3.0
2.7
Power Grid
Accumulate
206
223
107,823
29,183
32,946
89.7
90.0
18.0
20.8
11.5
9.9
1.9
1.7
17.7
18.2
7.6
7.1
Real Estate
Prestige Estate
Neutral
274
-
10,256
4,607
5,146
21.0
22.2
7.9
9.8
34.6
27.9
2.1
2.0
10.3
12.0
3.4
3.1
MLIFE
Accumulate
473
522
2,426
487
590
12.3
17.8
21.0
31.2
22.5
15.2
1.2
1.1
5.2
7.4
3.7
3.0
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
386
-
154,160
97,903
105,233
36.0
36.3
9.3
11.1
41.5
34.9
2.0
1.9
5.0
5.6
2.5
2.3
Idea Cellular
Neutral
76
-
27,376
35,012
37,689
27.1
27.7
(4.4)
(2.7)
1.2
1.2
(6.8)
(4.6)
2.1
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,180
-
8,882
3,244
3,723
14.9
16.1
167.5
209.4
25.0
20.0
5.5
4.6
23.7
24.8
2.4
2.0
Asian Granito
Buy
467
570
1,406
1,169
1,286
12.5
12.5
16.0
19.7
29.3
23.7
3.1
2.8
10.7
11.6
1.4
1.3
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
363
395
3,685
4,646
5,301
6.7
7.6
16.1
22.3
22.6
16.3
3.7
3.1
16.4
19.2
0.8
0.7
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
211
-
1,510
1,530
1,695
13.2
12.7
19.0
20.0
11.1
10.6
1.8
1.6
0.2
0.2
0.9
99.5
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
212
-
4,375
3,494
3,913
17.4
18.0
4.8
5.7
-
37.3
1.9
1.8
-
0.1
1.7
1.5
Ltd
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
56
-
627
171
201
15.0
16.2
36.0
43.0
1.6
1.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.0
2.6
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
880
-
1,926
928
1,003
15.2
15.2
39.4
43.2
22.3
20.4
3.7
3.1
16.5
15.4
1.9
1.7
Goodyear India*
Neutral
799
-
1,842
1,717
1,866
11.8
12.3
47.9
49.8
16.7
16.1
2.6
2.2
15.6
15.7
0.8
109.9
Hitachi
Neutral
1,985
-
5,398
2,355
2,715
10.3
10.8
49.0
60.9
40.5
32.6
9.5
7.5
0.2
0.2
2.3
2.0
HSIL
Neutral
389
-
2,815
2,240
2,670
14.6
15.0
17.0
22.0
22.9
17.7
1.9
1.8
0.1
0.1
1.5
1.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,089
-
39,380
22,570
27,955
14.2
15.0
63.6
81.8
17.1
13.3
9.0
7.6
0.5
0.6
1.4
1.1
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
397
-
7,215
1,781
2,044
14.1
15.0
9.4
10.5
42.5
37.8
9.0
8.5
0.2
0.2
4.3
3.7
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
228
-
337
420
462
9.3
9.3
15.3
17.1
14.9
13.3
2.5
2.6
16.9
19.5
0.9
0.8
M M Forgings
Neutral
650
-
785
542
642
20.1
21.0
41.6
56.8
15.6
11.4
2.2
1.8
0.1
0.2
1.9
1.6
Mirza International
Neutral
157
-
1,885
1,148
1,285
18.0
18.0
8.0
9.4
19.5
16.8
3.2
2.7
16.3
16.1
1.8
1.6
Navkar Corporation
Buy
183
265
2,615
561
617
41.5
41.5
11.5
12.7
15.9
14.4
1.7
1.5
10.5
10.4
5.3
4.6
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,547
-
2,309
2,317
2,525
11.4
11.1
96.0
105.0
16.1
14.7
2.7
2.4
0.2
0.2
1.0
0.9
Stock Watch
October 04, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
zOthers
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
247
-
2,079
1,987
2,379
7.6
9.0
12.4
18.3
19.9
13.5
2.8
2.5
8.2
13.2
1.2
1.0
Radico Khaitan
Neutral
167
-
2,222
1,811
1,992
13.2
13.2
8.1
8.8
20.6
19.0
2.1
2.3
10.1
12.0
1.6
1.4
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
520
-
6,249
1,981
2,310
13.7
14.5
12.0
15.5
43.4
33.6
8.4
6.8
0.2
0.2
3.2
2.8
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
2,229
2,500
2,089
1,769
1,981
12.7
12.7
113.1
131.1
19.7
17.0
3.1
2.6
15.5
15.5
1.4
1.2
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
888
-
1,562
1,800
1,980
8.0
8.1
42.0
46.2
21.2
19.2
2.4
2.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.9
Surya Roshni
Neutral
295
-
1,295
4,870
5,320
7.7
7.8
22.8
28.1
13.0
10.5
1.7
1.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.4
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
3,057
-
2,341
2,729
2,893
12.7
12.5
248.5
265.0
12.3
11.5
3.5
2.8
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Neutral
597
-
948
1,104
1,214
12.1
12.6
31.0
37.9
19.3
15.8
2.3
2.1
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.0
VIP Industries
Buy
255
300
3,608
1,450
1,693
10.4
10.5
6.5
7.8
39.0
32.7
8.3
7.2
21.1
22.1
2.5
2.1
Navin Fluorine
Accumulate
690
730
3,402
945
1,154
22.4
22.6
28.7
34.8
24.1
19.9
4.0
3.4
-
-
3.1
2.4
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 03, 2017
Market Outlook
October 04, 2017
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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